Shippers moving cargo from Asia to North America face tighter vessel capacity and greater difficulty securing bookings in the weeks ahead, while deteriorating service reliability threatens delivery schedules across major east-west trades, according to WiseTech Global’s October Ocean Freight Risk Outlook.
Capacity remains comparatively plentiful on Asia-Europe and Europe-North America routes, but available slots do not necessarily translate into on-time arrivals. On the trans-Pacific, reduced planned carrier capacity is expected to compound already weak service performance.
“Capacity is forecast to tighten towards the end of the outlook period, driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand,” WiseTech said of the Asia-North America trade. Its booking security risk indicator also is expected to rise and remain well above its historical average, signaling greater difficulty obtaining space on preferred sailings.
The four-week outlook combines forecast demand, planned carrier supply, booking responses, shipment arrival performance and port operating conditions. Its reliability measure tracks the share of shipments arriving at the discharge port on or before the carrier’s promised schedule.
Trans-Pacific faces booking and delivery pressure
Asia-North America on-time performance fell to 26.9% in September from 33.9% in August, a decline of 7 percentage points. The latest weekly reading was little better at 26.8%, while delays of eight days or more remained the largest arrival-outcome category.
WiseTech attributed increased waterside operating pressure in September to continuing disruption at Asian ports, with vessel delays reducing effective trans-Pacific capacity. China’s Golden Week holiday adds disruption to production and cargo flows, meaning a subsequent easing in demand may not immediately improve booking availability or schedule reliability, the report said.
Published schedules nevertheless show relatively short transit times. Planned Asia-North America transits range from 26.2 to 27.6 days during the outlook period, below the recent 28-day baseline. WiseTech cautioned that weak actual performance continues to create uncertainty around arrival dates despite those scheduled transit times.
The company advised forwarders and beneficial cargo owners to book early against contracted allocations and build additional time into delivery commitments, taking individual carriers’ reliability into account. Its analysis found substantial differences in service performance and booking acceptance risk among the trade’s top 10 carriers.
Asia-Europe reliability falls below 10%
The sharpest deterioration in monthly on-time performance occurred on Asia-Europe services, where the September reading fell to 9.9% from 22.9% in August. The latest weekly result improved modestly to 11.5%, but shipments delayed eight days or more accounted for 45.5% of volume that week.
Unlike the trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe is not expected to face a lane-wide capacity constraint during the forecast period. Planned carrier supply remains above projected demand, while booking security risk stays well below its historical average. Some tightening is expected late in the period as carriers reduce planned capacity, rather than because demand strengthens.
That leaves delivery execution, rather than securing vessel space, as the principal concern.
“Shorter published schedules do not indicate improved service reliability, with recent arrival performance continuing to show substantial delays,” WiseTech said. Planned transit times range from 37.8 to 39.9 days, below the recent 40.7-day baseline.
The report pointed to Asian port congestion and changes between Suez Canal-Red Sea and diverted Mideast routings around Africa as possible contributors to broader network disruption. Even the stronger-performing carriers have weak recent on-time results, limiting the protection that carrier selection alone can provide against shipment delays, WiseTech said.
Trans-Atlantic space remains available
Europe-North America presents a comparatively less constrained capacity outlook, with planned supply exceeding forecast demand throughout the period and booking security risk generally easing below its historical average. Increased planned capacity and softer demand initially improve conditions, followed by some tightening as planned capacity declines later in the outlook.
Reliability nevertheless weakened. Monthly on-time performance slipped to 39.2% in September from 42.8% in August. The latest weekly reading improved to 38.6%, with on-time arrivals representing the largest outcome category.
Carrier choice could make a substantial difference on the route: September on-time performance ranged from approximately 14% to 61% among carriers, according to WiseTech. Scheduled transit times remain broadly around the recent 19.1-day baseline, ranging from 17.7 to 19.5 days.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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