Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to ease through the end of 2026 after September marked the busiest month of the year. That would cap an extended shipping peak driven by tariff changes and sustained consumer spending.
Ports tracked by the National Retail Federation handled 2.37 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, of loaded imports in September. That was an increase of 3.4% from August and 12.6% from a year earlier.
September was also the third-busiest month since the report began tracking imports, behind only May 2022, when volume reached 2.4 million TEUs, and July 2025, at 2.39 million, according to the report.
“U.S. ports have seen high volume levels throughout this year’s longer-than-usual peak season and numbers are still strong even as the season winds down,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in the release.
The prolonged surge has created backups at some ports, particularly on the West Coast, where containers have faced extended waits for transfer to trains, Gold said. Despite those delays, most holiday merchandise has already arrived, and retailers are coordinating with transportation partners to keep remaining shipments moving.
Labor uncertainty has added another concern at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Employers and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26, which represents watchmen at several container terminals, reached a short-term contract extension while bargaining continues.
The agreement has been extended three times, most recently through Nov. 20. A long-term settlement remains outstanding following the expiration of the previous contract in July 2025.
The extended peak was attributed to retailers adjusting shipment schedules around tariff changes, continuing a pattern of frontloading that began in 2025.
Expectations for another prolonged surge initially faded after the Supreme Court struck down the high “Liberation Day” tariffs. But new tariffs introduced in the second quarter prompted another wave of imports beginning in May and continuing through mid-October, as consumers supported the influx despite rising inflation.
Although monthly volumes are projected to decline from September’s high, the report expects imports to remain above year-earlier levels through December. October, for which final figures were not yet available, was projected at 2.26 million TEUs, up 9.1% year over year. November was forecast at 2.05 million TEUs, up 1.2%, followed by December at 2.03 million, up 1.3%.
Those projections would bring full-year imports at the ports covered by the report to approximately 26 million TEUs, an increase of 2% from 2025.
The outlook turns softer in early 2027. January imports are forecast at 2.04 million TEUs, down 3% from a year earlier; February at 1.89 million, down 0.5%; and March at 1.92 million, down 11.2%.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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