The Business Roundtable is warning that withdrawing from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could disrupt deeply integrated North American supply chains and put millions of U.S. jobs at risk, even as the Trump administration signals growing dissatisfaction with the trade pact it once championed.
New analysis released by the CEO-led business group shows that U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico supported 1.2 million Texas jobs in 2023, with Texas exporting $168 billion in goods and services to its North American neighbors in 2024.
Since 2015, Texas goods exports to Canada and Mexico have risen 35%, while services exports climbed 38%, according to the data.
“Extending USMCA in a timely manner is critical to the vitality of U.S. businesses. As the first
joint review approaches, Business Roundtable calls for stronger North American integration,
enhanced cooperation on economic security, and restoration of preferential treatment for all
USMCA-compliant goods,” Nasim Fussell, Business Roundtable’s vice president for trade and international relations, said during testimony before the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in December.
Business Roundtable is an association of more than 200 chief executive officers (CEOs) of America’s leading companies, representing every sector of the U.S. economy, according to its website.
California shows a similar dependence on USMCA trade. Business Roundtable estimates that 1.7 million California jobs were supported by U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico in 2023, while the state exported $76 billion in goods and services to the two countries in 2024. Services exports have grown 53% since 2015, underscoring the role of cross-border trade beyond manufacturing alone.
Roughly two-thirds of Texas’ imports from Canada and Mexico are used as intermediate inputs for U.S. production, while about half of California’s imports from its North American partners play a similar role—highlighting how intertwined regional manufacturing and logistics networks have become.
Fussell: USMCA is central to North America’s competitiveness
Fussell said Canada and Mexico have invested $775 billion in the U.S. since the USMCA entered into force, while overall North American trade has increased by 50%.
He said integrated production networks—where goods cross borders multiple times before completion—are far more efficient than separate bilateral trade deals.
“Companies utilize resources and inputs from all three countries and manufacturing processes take goods over borders multiple times before completion,” Fussell said in his testimony.
“Regionalization keeps production close to home, under shared USMCA labor and environmental standards, and strengthens supply chain resilience by reducing our dependence on other regions and non-market economies.”
Fussell also emphasized that imports from Canada and Mexico contain far more U.S. value than imports from overseas competitors, noting that about 15% of the value in U.S. manufacturing imports from North America reflects U.S. work coming back home, compared with less than 2% for imports from China.
“Regionalization keeps production close to home, under shared USMCA labor and environmental standards, and strengthens supply chain resilience,” Fussell said.
Trump casts doubt on pact’s future
Despite that support from large employers and manufacturers, President Donald Trump has publicly questioned whether the U.S. still needs the agreement.
Speaking in January, Trump said the USMCA was “irrelevant” to the U.S. economy and suggested Canada benefits more from the deal than America does, comments that reignited uncertainty for companies that rely on cross-border trade flows, according to Reuters.
The remarks came even as major automakers and industry groups warned that unraveling the USMCA could undermine North American vehicle production and raise costs across automotive supply chains.
“The problem is we don’t need their product. You know, we don’t need cars made in Canada. We don’t need cars made in Mexico. We want to take them here. And that’s what’s happening,” Trump said during a tour of a Ford factory in Dearborn, Michigan, on Jan. 13.
The joint review of the USMCA is scheduled for later this year.
A new economic analysis from Business Roundtable shows that U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico supported 1.2 million Texas jobs in 2023. (Courtesy: Business Roundtable)
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