The truck transportation jobs figure for September did something it hadn’t done in more than three years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report released Friday showed 1,473,100 truck transportation jobs in September, an increase of 2,600 jobs from August.
But what was more notable is that the year-on-year comparison reported that the September total was 800 jobs more than a year earlier.
That does not sound like much. But it’s the first time since April 2023 that the year-on-year comparison for the truck transportation jobs report was positive.
At its widest, the year-on-year comparison gap was either side of 60,000 jobs in June and July of 2024.
The gap steadily narrowed from there. One month ago, it stood at 9,700 jobs. A big decline a year ago in total truck transportation jobs between August and September, combined with this year’s increase over the course of those two months, allowed the year-on-year comparison to turn positive in the latest report.
The September report released Friday was the third consecutive month that truck transportation jobs rose. They are now up four out of the last five months.
Sub-categories are also higher
The sub-category of truckload drivers continued its steady increase. That data is released by the BLS with a one-month lag.
The agency reported that truckload driver jobs rose to 503,200 jobs, up from 501,400 jobs in August. That was still less than the figure from a year ago of 503,900 jobs.
The peak was 553,600 jobs in both August and October 2022.
LTL jobs also continued to increase. They were 248,900 jobs in August, up 1,200 jobs from a month earlier and up from 246,000 jobs at the close of 2025.
Is capacity really exiting?
Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State, said the increase in truckload and LTL jobs suggests a view that capacity is exiting the market might not be accurate.
The data, he said in an email to FreightWaves, “points to existing establishments adding some capacity.”
“However, I’m not convinced these data won’t be substantially revised because seasonally adjusted administrative records showed payrolls declining in March, not reaching a bottom like the survey assumes,” Miller said. “If the (employment data) are indeed correct, this runs counter to the arguments advanced by the public truckload carriers that capacity continues to exit on net. These data point to the opposite: capacity is slowly recovering.”
The increase in LTL employment, though gradual, “makes sense with PMI data suggesting growth in manufacturing activity,” Miller said.
In a similar vein, Mazan Danaf, the principal economist at Uber Freight, said differences between this data and the quartelry Census of Employment and Wages suggests the annual revision in the BLS figures that is published in early February might cut the LTL and truckload figures.
“These figures are likely overstated and face significant revisions early next year,” Danaf said. “While Q1 Current Employment Statistics (CES) data indicated for-hire trucking employment fell 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) and long-distance truckload dropped 2.8%, the more reliable Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) survey reported steeper declines of 2.4% and 4.1%, respectively—better reflecting tighter regulations in Q1. If the QCEW numbers are accurate, the market may enter peak season undersupplied.”
Weakness in warehouse
Warehouse jobs, which a few months ago looked like they were bouncing back from months of weakness, are now little changed from where they were at the start of this year.
After a 4,100 job decline between August and September, and downward revisions for June and July, warehouse jobs of 1,831,800 jobs aren’t that much more than the January/February totals which straddled 1,831,000 jobs.
Warehouse jobs in September were 21,600 jobs less than a year ago. They are down more than 107,000 jobs from their March 2022 peak.
Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who has specialized in freight economics, described the third consecutive decline in warehouse jobs as “a troubling signal at a time of year when the sector should be busy building inventories ahead of the holiday season.”
“Either warehouse operators are planning for a muted holiday season, or automation has shifted the sector’s labor needs during the annual peak season,” he said in an email to FreightWaves.
Terrazas, speaking to the broader report that showed a modest rise in total employment of 29,000 jobs, said it was “a reminder that despite resilience through much of 2026, the labor market remains fragile — not contracting, but vulnerable.”
The increase in employment was “positive, safely in the range of breakeven estimates that imply balanced labor demand and supply.”
“Part of the challenge for economists and economic policymakers recently has been that there are no green lights signaling ‘all ok’ in the economy, but there are not many red lights signaling warning either, only a bunch of yellow lights telling us to proceed with caution,” Terrazas said.
In other highlights from the monthly report:
Average hourly earnings in the truck transportation sector for production and nonsupervisory employees took a fairly sharp increase in August. The data is reported with a one-month lag. August earnings for that sector was $32.67/hour, up from $32.36 a month earlier. That figure rises just about every month so the fact that it is a record is not unique. But the increase of about 9.6% in one month is the highest since October 2025, when it was also about 9.6%.
In other benchmark numbers, the joint data from AscendTMS and Superior Trucking reported that its fleet growth index was up 0.19% in September, the third consecutive month of growth. It also reported driver turnover of 8.15%, which was down from 9.37& in August and 15.06% a year earlier. The AscendTMS/Superior Trucking driver pay index was 154.13. That was down from the June peak of 170.04.
Rail jobs remained below 150,000 jobs, which has been sort of a median figure in recent months. But at 148,900 jobs, it’s the second lowest total since a move above 150,000 jobs that took place in late 2022 and held until a few months earlier this year when the figure dropped below 150,000 jobs. The recent peak was 158,100 jobs in April 2024.
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