Welcome to this week’s Food Exec Brief, your strategic intelligence roundup for food and beverage manufacturing leaders. This week, we’re covering:
U.S. import prices rose 7.0% year-over-year in August, the largest annual gain since 2022. Manufacturing imports are up 5.9% annually, and upstream signals in diesel, warehousing, cold storage, and corn could lead to a food inflation rate of 2.7% to 2.9% by the end of the year.
Private equity is absorbing the brands that big food brands can no longer justify running at scale, with Chef Boyardee, Pop Secret, and Noosa all changing hands. Meanwhile, Schreiber Foods is committing $267 million to a new process-cheese facility in Missouri.
Campbell’s, PepsiCo, Conagra, Kraft Heinz, and JM Smucker are all reporting ultra-processed food exposure in their SEC filings, as the Non-UPF Verified program reaches 304 verified products across 23 brands since launching in January 2026.
Input costs are outrunning what the CPI numbers show
U.S. import prices rose 7.0% year-over-year in August, the largest annual gain since August 2022. Manufacturing imports jumped 5.9% annually. Nonfuel imports are at their highest growth rate since May 2022. Petroleum and coal products surged 42.2% year-over-year. Cost pressure is broad across materials, capital goods, and supplies. If you’re importing materials or components, 5% to 7% annual price increases are the working assumption right now. (Learn more)
The downstream CPI picture hides what manufacturers are facing upstream. Food-at-home CPI slowed to 2.2% year-over-year in August, but rising PPI for fuel, power, storage, and transport suggests upstream cost pressures. Tariff impacts on Canadian imports and lower corn yields, which affect over 75% of supermarket items, will push retail prices higher over a six to 12 month lag. While USDA forecasts 2.5% food inflation for 2026, PPI trends project 2.7% to 2.9%. (Learn more)
Big food divestitures yield results under PE management
Conagra, Campbell’s, Hormel, Utz, General Mills, and Hain Celestial have all sold brand assets in the past two years, and the buyers are running them better. Conagra sold Chef Boyardee to Brynwood Partners for $600 million. Campbell’s offloaded Pop Secret, Noosa yogurt, and Emerald Nuts. Hormel sold a 51% stake in Justin’s nut butter. The sellers are trimming portfolios deliberately, and PE is stepping in with tighter focus and faster decisions. Private equity firms cite six-week decision timelines versus the six months a large CPG requires. Brynwood got Funfetti sales up more than 50% after acquiring it. (Learn more)
While brand divestitures accelerate, capital is still flowing into core commodity categories. Schreiber Foods is spending $267 million to build a new process-cheese facility in Carthage, Missouri, creating approximately 100 jobs when it opens in 2028. The company already employs more than 1,300 people in Carthage, so this deepens a bet on a category with stable demand. (Learn more) Meanwhile, Maple Leaf Foods is closing plants in Seattle and Turners Falls, Massachusetts, and consolidating production into Indianapolis over the next 12 to 18 months, citing manufacturing capacity that is “substantially underutilized. (Learn more)
Ultra-processed food goes from consumer sentiment to SEC risk disclosures
Five major CPG companies are now reporting ultra-processed food risk to investors in their SEC filings. Campbell’s warns that regulatory scrutiny of UPFs “could result in new definitions, labeling requirements, marketing restrictions or reformulation mandates.” PepsiCo warns that negative views on UPFs “could…adversely impact” the company. Conagra, Kraft Heinz, and JM Smucker are disclosing active litigation claiming their products cause health damage. Texas requires warning labels on artificial colors starting January 1, 2027. The FDA submitted a white paper to OMB in August 2026. That’s five companies citing the same risk in the same filing period. (Learn more)
The Non-UPF Verified certification is building the other side of the market. The program launched January 21, 2026 and now covers 304 products across 23 brands, including Amy’s Kitchen, Simple Mills, Spindrift, and Chomps, spanning 15 food and beverage categories. Another 41 brands are actively pursuing certification. California’s AB 2244 proposes a state-administered non-ultraprocessed certification, which would move this from a third-party seal to a regulated standard. Manufacturers with reformulation flexibility and cleaner ingredient lists are positioning ahead of what appears to be incoming regulatory pressure. (Learn more)
