JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — U.S. trucking companies could face elevated diesel prices through at least spring 2027, according to energy and truck stop executives speaking Tuesday at the WEX OTR Summit.
Geopolitical conflicts, refinery constraints and limited pipeline capacity continue to strain fuel supplies could continue to impact the trucking industry, according to Chuck Ryan, president and CEO of AMBEST, a nationwide network of independent truck stops and service centers.
Ryan said diesel prices are unlikely to decline significantly before spring, even if global crude oil prices retreat.
“I don’t see it coming down until spring, and that’s if things start to work out on the war front,” Ryan told FreightWaves and Transport Topics during an interview following the panel discussion.
Ryan said the ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Russia’s war in Ukraine have disrupted global energy supplies, while U.S. refining and transportation infrastructure remains constrained.
“If oil dropped today, that does not mean the price will go down,” Ryan said during the panel. “In fact, I think we will have this problem for the next several months, whether the wars end or not.”
The discussion, titled “At the Pump & On the Margin: Navigating Fuel Price Volatility and Network Optimization,” featured executives from AMBEST, Circle K, Maverik and Dow Jones Energy. It was moderated by Will Bowen, senior director of merchant services at WEX.
The second annual WEX OTR Summit was held at the Sawgrass Marriott Golf Resort & Spa and drew more than 115 attendees, including trucking executives, fuel providers, technology companies and other transportation industry representatives.
Panelists discussed how fuel supply disruptions, retail pricing strategies and changing fleet purchasing practices are affecting the trucking industry.
Refinery constraints threaten diesel supplies
Ryan said the nation’s shrinking number of refineries, limited pipeline capacity and changing energy policies have made it increasingly difficult to respond to sudden disruptions in diesel supplies.
The U.S. had more than 300 operating refineries in 1980, compared with approximately 128 today, Ryan said. Although many remaining facilities have expanded their capacity, he argued that the nation’s distribution infrastructure has not kept pace with demand.
“There’s no space in the pipelines. There’s no space in the terminals,” Ryan said. “There’s no place to put additional products.”
Ryan also warned that refineries operating near maximum capacity could become vulnerable to unexpected shutdowns or maintenance problems.
During the separate interview, Ryan said restoring shuttered refineries would require substantial investment and regulatory certainty.
He estimated that rebuilding portions of older California refineries could cost between $1 billion and $1.5 billion, depending on the facilities and equipment involved.
Ryan said major oil companies would likely need to share the financial risks of large-scale refinery redevelopment projects.
Meanwhile, Denton Cinquegrana, director of energy research at Dow Jones Energy, said global diesel markets remain vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by attacks on Russian refineries and shipping restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Cinquegrana said U.S. refineries have been operating above 95% of capacity, leaving limited flexibility if major facilities experience unplanned outages.
He also expressed concerns about refinery maintenance schedules and the potential consequences for fuel supplies heading into 2027.
Winter weather could worsen diesel shortages
Ryan identified the Northeast as a particularly vulnerable region because diesel fuel and heating oil compete for pipeline capacity during periods of cold weather.
“If it gets cold in the northeast, pipeline space is going to be consumed by heating oil, and diesel oil won’t make the line,” Ryan said during the panel. “So then you could get into reliability issues.”
He said trucking fleets should diversify their fuel supply options rather than depend on a single provider.
Ryan said the nation’s refined-product pipelines are already heavily allocated, making alternative transportation methods more expensive.
Transporting additional fuel by truck or marine vessel could help alleviate localized shortages, but those alternatives carry significantly higher costs, he said.
Cinquegrana also warned that the closure of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery following a 2019 fire reduced regional refining capacity, leaving the Northeast more dependent on fuel shipments from other regions.
Even if geopolitical tensions ease, restoring inventories and normal shipping patterns could take several months, he said.
Fleets urged to focus on net fuel prices, not discounts
Beyond supply constraints, panelists emphasized that trucking companies should evaluate the actual price they pay for diesel rather than focus exclusively on advertised fuel discounts.
Meghann Erhart, chief commercial officer at Maverik, said some carriers mistakenly assume that larger discounts automatically translate into lower fuel costs.
She described a customer who shifted purchases to another fuel provider offering a substantially larger discount, only to discover that Maverik’s actual net price was 7.5 cents per gallon lower.
“The depth of that discount could show that you’re buying well and you may be leaving money on the table,” Erhart said.
Ryan agreed that fleets should regularly review their fuel purchasing agreements and understand the differences between cost-plus and retail-minus pricing arrangements.
“If I were a fleet, I would make sure that they get the people in the room who they’re doing business with on a regular basis, not just once a year,” Ryan said.
Rob Nordlander, head of business-to-business commercial sales at Circle K, said trucking companies should also consider the overall value provided by fuel merchants, including reliable equipment, clean facilities and driver services.
He said drivers are less likely to return to truck stops where pumps malfunction, payment transactions fail or facilities are poorly maintained.
The discussion comes as carriers continue to grapple with rising fuel expenses and uncertainty over their ability to recover those costs through fuel surcharges.
AMBEST expanding network amid growing competition
During the separate interview, Ryan said AMBEST expects to add approximately 90 locations in 2026 as the organization expands its network and helps independent operators compete with national truck stop chains.
AMBEST currently has more than 580 branded fuel locations and approximately 120 heavy mechanical service centers, bringing its combined network to nearly 700 locations, Ryan said.
“We’ll grow to 90 this year. And we’ll continue to do that,” Ryan said.
However, he said the organization is being selective about new members to avoid expanding beyond its operational capabilities.
“We’re slowing it down so that we don’t grow beyond our capabilities,” Ryan said.
Founded in 1988 by 25 independent truck stop owners, AMBEST was established to help smaller operators gain purchasing power and compete with larger national chains while retaining their independence.
Ryan said its membership now includes independently owned family businesses as well as operators such as 7-Eleven, Circle K and Casey’s.
The organization has increasingly relied on data analytics to identify network gaps, evaluate customer demand and help members make business decisions.
“That has been probably one of the biggest drivers for our growth, is the ability to bring data to our members,” Ryan said.
He said the independent truck stop sector faces growing competition from convenience store operators and regional fuel retailers investing in high-flow diesel locations.
“The pie is not getting bigger. The demand is what it is, so it’s how much of that share will you have,” Ryan said.
Despite the competitive pressure, Ryan said independent operators can distinguish themselves through customer service, regional offerings and amenities tailored to changing driver preferences.
“Our superpower is the ability to act locally,” he said.
During the panel, Ryan also urged independent truck stop owners to modernize their facilities rather than rely on business models and amenities designed decades ago.
“You have to operate a truck stop like it should in 2026, not in the previous century,” Ryan said.
Ryan, whose father worked as a truck driver, said the industry’s long-term success ultimately depends on recognizing the importance of drivers and providing services that meet their needs.
“There’s nothing in this room, there’s nothing you do or I do that doesn’t involve a truck,” Ryan said.
Why it matters: Energy and truck stop officials said prolonged diesel price volatility could add financial pressure to trucking companies already struggling with rising operating costs.
The post Diesel prices may stay elevated into spring 2027, fuel executives warn appeared first on FreightWaves.
