Schneider National lowered full-year 2024 expectations on Wednesday as seasonal trends, which were favorable in June and July, eroded during August and September.
The Green Bay, Wisconsin-based multimodal transportation provider now expects 2024 adjusted earnings per share of just 66 to 72 cents, down from quarter-ago guidance of 80 to 90 cents, and lower than the 82-cent consensus estimate at the time of the print.
The company did say it expects to see some seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter. The midpoint of the company’s revised guidance range implies fourth-quarter EPS of 19 cents, nearly 20% higher y/y. However, that compares to the current consensus estimate of 28 cents.
Schneider called out continued weakness in its network (one-way) truckload segment on a Wednesday call with analysts. It said that even as contract rate renewals were at the “highest level since first quarter 2022” (up by a mid-single-digit percentage), this segment of the market is highly “commoditized” and not supportive of “additional investment.”
Schneider (NYSE: SNDR) reported adjusted EPS of 18 cents in the third quarter, which was 5 cents worse than the consensus estimate and 2 cents lower year over year. Lower gains on both equipment sales and equity investments presented a 4-cent y/y drag. It also said higher insurance and claims costs were a 4-cent headwind even though incident frequency declined.
Table: Schneider’s key performance indicators
Revenue in the TL unit dipped 0.6% y/y to $532 million as average trucks in service declined 2.6% and revenue per truck per week excluding fuel surcharges was up 1.6%. The dedicated truck count was up 4% while the one-way fleet declined 12% y/y. (Schneider acquired dedicated carrier M&M Transport Services in August 2023.)
President and CEO Mark Rourke said recent channel checks with truck lenders show the one-way market is seeing a capacity shakeup as defaults and repossessions “are growing, and in some cases rivaling the financial crisis levels from 2008 and 2009.”
He also told analysts that account churn within Schneider’s dedicated business is down 50% from last year and that he expects a higher level of customer retention moving forward.
The unit recorded a 95.5% operating ratio, which was 10 basis points worse y/y and 120 bps worse than the second quarter. The one-way fleet operated at a loss in the period.
Chart: (SONAR: OTRI.USA). A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index, shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers. To learn more about SONAR, click here.
Chart: (SONAR: NTIL.USA). The National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel.
Intermodal revenue increased slightly y/y in the quarter to $265 million as loads were up 0.9% and revenue per load was up 0.4%. The company saw double-digit load growth off the West Coast and from Mexico, which was partially offset by lower volumes in the East. Shorter lengths of haul in the Eastern network make truckload and its depressed rates a viable option.
Loads were up 3.2% from the second quarter with yield 1% higher.
The unit reported a 94.1% OR, which was 170 bps better y/y (10 bps better sequentially). Cost actions and improved drayage productivity were the catalysts for the improvement. Average turns per container were also up 3.2% y/y.
Logistics revenue fell 3.8% y/y to $314 million as brokerage loads dipped 1% with brokerage revenue per load closing the gap in the decline. A 97.6% OR was 20 bps worse y/y and 110 bps worse than the second quarter.
Shares of SNDR were up 4.6% at 1:47 p.m. EST on Wednesday compared with the S&P 500, which was up 2.4%.
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