Ryder CEO sees freight market nearing ‘bottom’

October 25, 2023

Ryder System Inc.’s third-quarter net income declined 35% year over year (y/y) compared to the same period in 2022, as demand for rental trucks and fleet management softened.

The Miami-based company announced its third-quarter earnings before the market opened Wednesday.

“As we see things that continue to decline, the freight cycle is probably nearing a bottom here over the next quarter or two,” Chairman and CEO Robert Sanchez said later during a call with analysts. “We’re assuming that the market will remain soft, probably to the middle of next year, and then as we get into the back half of next year, we would expect things to start to come back up.”

Ryder (NYSE: R) posted net income of $161 million, or $3.47 a share, during the third quarter, down from $246 million, or $4.82 a share, in the same year-ago period.

During the third quarter, Ryder posted total revenue of $2.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.58, missing analysts’ estimates of $3.01 billion but beating the EPS prediction of $3.22.

“We do have [market] visibility across a lot of customers, and this quarter, we saw continued softness with transports in apparel and retail, which still seems to be relatively soft, and housing, things like furniture, and housing support-type products are down,” Sanchez said. “But we do still see strengths, and we did see strength in the consumer packaged goods sector. In automotive, we saw automotive production really strong in the quarter. We saw strengths in industrial industries, a little bit of a mixed bag, but the industrial customers that we have still saw some good strength.”

The leasing, fleet management, transportation and supply chain solutions provider increased its full-year 2023 outlook for adjusted earnings per share of $12.60 to $12.85, up from $12.20 to $12.70.

Ryder also adjusted its full-year return-on-equity forecast to 18% to 19%, up from 17% to 19%. The company’s full-year forecast for net cash-from-continuing-operations is $2.5 billion; and its adjusted free-cash-flow forecast for the full-year is $100 million.

Ryder’s flagship Fleet Management Solutions segment saw revenue during the third quarter decrease 6% on a y/y basis to $1.48 billion. Revenue for the company’s Supply Chain Solutions declined 1.6% y/y to $1.19 billion, and the Dedicated Transportation Solutions segment slipped 1.5% y/y in Q3 to $448 million.

Despite declining revenue across the company’s three operating segments, Sanchez said “all three business segments achieved EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] margins for the second consecutive quarter.”

“Our enhanced asset management playbook is enabling us to generate higher earnings in each phase of the cycle,” Sanchez said.

Over the past several years, Ryder has shifted its revenue mix toward its supply chain and dedicated segments, with 55% of 2023 revenue expected to be from the two asset-light businesses, compared to 44% in 2018, Sanchez said.

During the third quarter, Ryder sold 6,500 used vehicles, compared to 5,000 during the same quarter in 2022, but posted lower gains due to a 30% and 31% decrease in used truck and tractor pricing, respectively, partially offset by higher volumes.

Sanchez also touted Ryder’s recent acquisition of Impact Fulfillment Services Holdings LLC, a contract packaging, manufacturing and warehousing services company with operations in 15 states.

“The transaction is set to add contract packaging and manufacturing capabilities that complement our existing suite of port-to-door logistics services, allowing us to expand with existing customers while adding new brands to our extensive customer base,” Sanchez said.

Ryder’s board of directors also recently authorized two share repurchase programs aimed at returning equity to its shareholders.

Ryder System Inc.Q3/23Q3/22Y/Y% ChangeTotal revenue$2.9B$3B(4%)Fleet Management Solutions$1.48B$1.58B(6%)Supply Chain Solutions$1.19B$1.21B(1.6%)Dedicated Transportation Solutions$448M$455M(1.5%)Adjusted earnings per share$3.58$4.45(21%)Information provided by Ryder System Inc.