It’s the end of the year, which is the time for best-of lists, year in review and predictions for the new year. The predictions will absolutely come before the end of the month, but before that let’s look at what the predictions were for 2024. Grade the work if you will.
The big predictions I had for 2024 at this time last year were:
A year of self-reflection in the industry: working on internal processes – what’s working, what needs help – as well as identifying pain points and eradicating unnecessary technology.
Grade: B-plus
This wasn’t a huge miss. This is something that most organizations do regularly, and there have been a lot of conversations around the removal of duplicated technology. We’ve seen a lot of integrations and partnerships in the tech space, specifically with the emphasis on cutting down unnecessary steps and keeping things easily reachable and all in one place for users. Overall a solid prediction, it just wasn’t the focal point of 2024.
The second big prediction was the rise of reverse logistics. Everything from e-commerce returns and sustainability measures to reducing loss in the supply chain.
Grade: B-minus
Again, this wasn’t a huge miss. Rather, it is still the problem it has always been. There isn’t a great solution for reverse logistics at scale. When you venture out of a closed-loop system, it gets infinitely harder to have efficient and effective reverse logistics that don’t waste time, money and resources. With the continued rise of e-commerce, it could become an even bigger problem throughout the coming year.
The last prediction was a more resilient supply chain that moves faster and learns from mistakes of the past: not getting caught on the back foot with labor disputes, nearshoring and whatever else happens, and being able to move quickly, adapt and keep things running.
Grade: A
If there has been anything to test this theory, oh boy, 2024 was the year to assess the resilience of a supply chain after the disaster that was 2020. Consider: labor strikes, nearshoring, natural disasters that still have parts of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee unpassable. All have tested shippers’, brokers’ and carriers’ ability to move quickly to ensure supply chains don’t come to a screeching halt – especially as cargo theft and fraud continue to rise. This will remain a significant issue in 2025 as there currently isn’t a surefire way to cut down on fraud.
These were overall not the worst predictions possible, but they were all pretty safe bets. I’m thinking on a slightly grander scale for 2025 to really raise the stakes.
TRAC Tuesday. This week’s lane goes from Memphis, Tennessee, to Atlanta: two significant freight markets and a quick 380-mile trip. The good news for both markets is that since they are large it will be easier for carriers to find loads that get their driver out of the market and go wherever they need to. This lane itself is about 31 cents per mile over the National Truckload Index, but a rate per mile of $2.70 or an all-in rate of $1,024 before margin should secure this load for brokers with little problem.
Capacity in Memphis is loosening as outbound tender rejections have fallen 30 basis points week over week for an OTRI of 5.65%. Atlanta, on the other hand, has an outbound tender rejection rate of 6.23% with a 174-basis-point increase w/w. As long as Atlanta still has elevated OTRI and it continues to rise, there is little chance of the spot rate on this lane dropping.
Who’s with whom. Broker liability heads to the U.S. Supreme Court. Well, the court hasn’t agreed to hear the case yet, but TQL is asking the court to do so. Broker liability has been in and out of the courts pretty heavily the past few years.
Traditionally when a party loses a case in the lower federal courts, it can appeal to the next higher court and ultimately to the Supreme Court.
Here’s where it gets a little weird: The lower courts ruled in TQL’s favor. This appeal has both parties, TQL and Katia Gauthier, seeking review of this case. TQL’s request suggests it believes it has such a strong case that it’s willing to risk an unfavorable ruling.
The case is all too familiar in the brokerage space. Gauthier’s husband was killed in May 2020 in a collision with a truck hired by TQL. Lower courts have split on the question of whether, under the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act, brokers are protected from liability in such cases.
This is now the third time broker liability has been brought to the Supreme Court, which has previously denied review. Maybe the third time is the charm.
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The post Check Call: Rating 2024 supply chain predictions appeared first on FreightWaves.
