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Sunday, September 22, 2024
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Are startup investors getting past the FOMU cycle?

The same driverless technology that Kodiak Robotics plans to put on highways in late 2024 has application to the military, which sees leveraging commercially developed innovation as smarter than creating everything itself.

Following Kodiak’s reveal of its Ford F-150-based prototype autonomous vehicle for the U.S. Army on Monday, Kodiak founder and CEO Don Burnette and I discussed dual-use technology, the recent comings and goings in the autonomous trucking space and a thawing of investor resistance to startups.

TRUCK TECH: Kodiak is embracing the dual-use approach to autonomy in a way that appears to differentiate you from most highway autonomy competitors.

BURNETTE: It’s not every day that any company, much less a startup, has the secretary of defense come out and talk to us and take a look at our technology and really vouch for what’s happening. I think what that shows is the importance of dual use, the importance of software and AI in the future of government programs more broadly.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kodiak in Mountain View, California, to check out its autonomous technology in which the Army is investing up to $50 million. (Photo: Kodiak Robotics)

Finding applications of technology that can apply to a military use case simultaneously with a civilian and commercial use case is the future, because that’s where the efficiency is. That’s where the iteration is, that’s where the learnings are. With AI, it’s different. We’re not building boxes of metal anymore. That’s the old way. Now, data is king, users are king, and in order for the government to take advantage of that, they have to leverage dual use.

TRUCK TECH: The Ford F-150 pickup prototype brings light-duty vehicles into the picture. You added teleoperations capability to Level 4 autonomy. Was that required?

BURNETTE: It’s important for government applications that we be able to transition from teleoperation to autonomous and back. Everybody recognizes that autonomy is not going to get you everywhere all the time. It’s just not a realistic expectation in the short or medium term. Maybe in the long term, it’s a different story. But humans are going to remain in the loop.

Teleop is much more conducive to low-speed environments and environments that have good cellular reception or Wi-Fi, or some kind of wireless communication availability. The jury is still out on whether or not this technology is poised to disrupt the commercial space.

TRUCK TECH: Three autonomous trucking developers — Embark Trucks, Waymo Via and, most recently, TuSimple’s U.S. operations — have left the field this year. What do you make of this?

BURNETTE: It’s a challenging environment. You not only have to have the right business strategy, you have to have the right technology, the right partners. It’s hard for the media and folks who are not intimately insiders in this industry to understand differentiation and what it actually takes to make this a reality.

Slowly but surely you’re going to start to see companies who have the right approach pull ahead and ultimately survive. It’s not like there’s any specific reason one or any other company doesn’t succeed.

TRUCK TECH: A shakeout clearly has occurred. But we’re also seeing new players like Waabi Innovation and Stack AV arriving.

BURNETTE: There will always be new players. This market is massive. The opportunity is large. I was telling the team the other day [that] even if Kodiak were the only company to survive in this space, there would be no such thing as winning because there will always be new companies starting projects. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if more companies in 2024 and 2025 entered the stage. It’s going to be a continuous influx of folks trying to differentiate themselves within the market. But that’s true of every market [and] every industry. Self-driving is no different. It just happens to be one that nobody has quite cracked yet.

Don Burnette, founder and CEO of Kodiak Robotics, sees the investment community warming to startups after a period of FOMU — fear of messing up. (Photo: Alan Adler/FreightWaves)

TRUCK TECH: Because Kodiak is privately held, I always ask you for a financial update. Your last announced capital raise was in 2021. Any update?

BURNETTE: You’re always thinking about future capital needs and we are no different from any other company. We’re not profitable. We’re definitely going to be looking to the markets to raise more capital.

TRUCK TECH: Is the picture for such fundraising getting better?

BURNETTE: The conversations are certainly turning more positive. The whole community is starting to ease up. And this is a momentum-driven business. When investors think other investors are poised to jump, that kind of creates a little bit of a springboard effect.

TRUCK TECH: A fear of missing out effect?

BURNETTE: For a couple of years now, we’ve been in a FOMU cycle, [or] fear of messing up. And that can only last for so long. I’m definitely starting to hear the murmurs of things turning around, and I think it’s great. It’s a perfect time. 

Hyzon Motors talks hydrogen and fuel cells at COP 28

Hyzon Motors CEO Parker Meeks spoke on two panels during the United Nations Climate Change Conference, referred to as COP 28, in the United Arab Emirates this week. In an email exchange, Meeks told me what the fuel cell developer hoped to accomplish and whether it was achieved.

TRUCK TECH: What was Hyzon’s key message at COP 28 and how did you feel it was received?

MEEKS: Hyzon’s key message at COP 28 was that hydrogen fuel cell technology is ready to deploy today, that demand for FCEVs [fuel cell electric vehicles] is increasing thanks to new and expanding subsidy schemes and customers’ disappointing experiences with BEVs [battery electric vehicles]. Hyzon’s technology is on the road, doing real work just like its diesel counterpart, with sustainable and competitive cost profiles. I believe our message was heard loud and clear by leaders both inside and outside of the industry.

TRUCK TECH: COP 28 got a lot of media play around Big Oil wanting to keep petroleum in the mix. Methane also got some attention. How was the hydrogen message received in the panels in which you participated?

MEEKS: We’ve been having very productive conversations around the role of hydrogen in heavy-duty applications. There is clearly a need and desire among companies and leaders to find ways to quickly and responsibly decarbonize our hard-to-abate sectors and use cases. There is an emerging consensus that hydrogen has a significant place in the mix of decarbonizing solutions particularly in harder-to-abate use cases like trucking.

It was important to us to prove that hydrogen is an answer to these complex problems. Hyzon received very positive feedback on the panels we participated in, and we successfully demonstrated that hydrogen fuel-cell technology is a viable alternative to traditional fossil fuels for vehicles and other sources of power to operate efficiently and emission-free.

TRUCK TECH: Hyzon’s global ambitions made COP 28 a good event for you. Did interest in fuel cells for transportation and your new entry into stationary power attract many potential customer discussions?

MEEKS: Going into COP 28, our primary goal was to highlight the strength of hydrogen, and more specifically, hydrogen fuel cell technology as an answer to many of the concerns of climate change. I believe we accomplished that goal. There is clearly an increasing interest in putting hydrogen to work in trucks and other heavy-duty use cases.

Equally important, there is a sobering acceptance that partners across the ecosystem — such as fuel and financing — need to work together to do things differently and make change happen faster to make this happen faster. COP 28 provided a backdrop for us to bring these parties together and advance productive conversations.

Hyzon Motors CEO Parker Meeks spoke on two panels at the United Nations Climate Conference known as COP 28. (Photo: Hyzon Motors)

Briefly noted:

Torc Robotics is the latest autonomous trucking developer to offer its driver-monitored autonomous services to Uber Freight

Ford’s commercial division Ford Pro and national energy company Xcel Energy are collaborating to install 30,000 fleet-focused electric vehicle charging ports by 2030.

Hyliion Holdings will talk about the specifics of its Karno generator technology next Tuesday in a fireside chat as it seeks customers to adopt the system for stationary charging.

Electric vehicle startup Mullen Automotive is taking orders for a Class 1 cargo van that resembles the defunct offering from the bankrupt Electric Last Mile Solutions startup. Mullen purchased ELMS assets for $105 million in November 2022.

Ryder System Inc. has signed its first two customers to multiyear electric vehicle contracts under the RyderElectric+ turnkey fleet solution. 

Ryder has signed its first two customers for multiyear electric vehicle contracts. (Photo: Ryder System Inc.)

Truck Tech episode No. 44: Industry aligns to slow California’s zero-emissions roll

Jim Mullen, executive director of the Clean Freight Coalition, explained the group’s lobbying and education efforts to slow California’s aggressive rules for zero emission trucks.

That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading (and watching). Click here to get Truck Tech via email on Fridays. And catch the latest in major events and hear from the top players on Truck Tech at 3 p.m. Wednesdays on the FreightWaves YouTube channel. We value your feedback. Please write aadler@freightwaves.com with comments and story suggestions.

The post Are startup investors getting past the FOMU cycle? appeared first on FreightWaves.

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