Less-than-truckload carrier Saia took market share again in the fourth quarter, but margins slid as new business wins and terminals came online. The company is at the tail end of an intense network growth initiative that has catapulted it to a national carrier serving all 48 contiguous states. The focus will now shift to pricing and margin opportunities.
Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) beat fourth-quarter expectations Monday, reporting earnings per share of $2.84, 7 cents higher than the consensus estimate but 49 cents lower year over year. Debt incurred from funding the terminal purchases resulted in a $5.1 million swing from interest income to interest expense in the quarter, a 15-cent y/y drag on EPS.
Management told analysts on a Monday call that the LTL market remains loose as the industrial complex sags and that customers have options as capacity is available. Saia has used the downturn to meaningfully expand its network, opening 21 terminals and relocating nine others last year. The additions included the $235.7 million portfolio it acquired from bankrupt Yellow Corp. (OTC: YELLQ).
Saia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $789 million, 5% higher y/y (up 3.3% on a per-day basis) and a record for any fourth quarter. Three-quarters of the growth came from new terminals that aren’t yet running optimally.
The per-day revenue increase was the combination of an 8.3% y/y jump in tonnage per day, partially offset by a 5.4% decline in revenue per hundredweight, or yield (down 2.3% excluding fuel surcharges). The tonnage increase was due to a 4.5% increase in shipments per day and a 3.7% increase in weight per shipment.
Saia continued taking share in the quarter with tonnage increasing 6.9% y/y in October, 5.7% in November and 13.5% in December. January tonnage was also 13.5% higher y/y. The two-year-stacked comps were up 20% in December and 17% in January, some of the highest since Yellow’s departure.
The increase in weight per shipment dragged the yield metric lower. Yields were positive, netting out the change.
Chart: Saia’s key performance indicators
Management noted that pricing across the industry remains rational. It implemented a 7.9% general rate increase in late October. Pricing on contracts that renewed in the quarter were also up 7.9% on average. The company said it’s working to close the revenue-per-shipment gap it has with the rest of the market as service metrics have improved and it now operates a national network.
“We still feel like we’ve got work to do. … We look across the board and we’re cheaper than everybody else. Our footprint expansion and our ability to do a great job for customers in every market is an opportunity … [to] take share but also [to] charge appropriately for it,” said CFO Matt Batteh on the call.
Saia’s weight per shipment fell in the third quarter of 2023 as it onboarded lighter-weight retail shipments from Yellow’s shuttered network. Saia has seen weights increase steadily since bottoming in the 2023 fourth quarter. Higher shipment weights are typically supportive of margins.
SONAR: Longhaul LTL Monthly Rate per Ton Mile, Class 70-85 Index. Less-than-truckload monthly indices are based on the median rate per ton mile for four National Motor Freight Classification groupings and five different mileage bands. To learn more about SONAR, click here.
SONAR: Midhaul LTL Monthly Rate per Ton Mile, Class 70-85 Index. To learn more about SONAR, click here.
The company reported an 87.1% operating ratio (inverse of operating margin), which was 210 basis points worse y/y and 200 bps worse than the third quarter. A 2% decline in revenue per shipment was exacerbated by a 1.4% increase in cost per shipment.
The OR result was slightly better than the normal change rate of 250 bps of deterioration from the third to the fourth quarter.
In addition to the terminal additions being a cost headwind, the company incurred costs from a higher employee count and a wage increase. It added 1,300 employees during 2024 during, ending the year with roughly 15,000. It implemented a 4.1% annual wage and benefits increase in July.
Salaries, wages and benefits expenses increased 160 basis points y/y as a percentage of revenue. Purchased transportation expenses declined 130 bps.
Looking forward, management expects the OR to deteriorate by 30 to 50 bps from the fourth to the first quarter, implying an 87.5% OR, roughly 300 bps worse y/y. The cost drag from the new terminals and inclement weather in January are the reasons for the expected underperformance.
The carrier forecast full-year OR improvement of 80 to 100 bps in 2025, implying an 84% OR. The 2025 guidance assumes no material change in the macroeconomic environment. The company didn’t update its longer-term OR target guidance of 100 to 150 bps of annual improvement.
Saia forecast full-year 2025 net capital expenditures to be in excess of $700 million, which is down from the $1.04 billion invested in the network last year but above the roughly $400 million allocated in the pre-Yellow-shutdown years.
The company plans to open or relocate five or six terminals this year. It has opened 69 terminals and relocated 28 in recent years.
Shares of SAIA were off 2% at 1:45 p.m. EST on Monday, a reversal from a more than 3% gain earlier in the session. The S&P 500 was off 0.6%.
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