Welcome to the WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Newsletter presented by Nikola. In this issue, is the market normalizing?; trucking pandas; and more.
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The calm after the storm
Disruption and reaction — October faced both a widespread port strike and two devastating hurricanes. Those events brought so much uncertainty to the market it was hard to call how exactly this would all shake out. Not to mention, a lot of the industry has been rightly focused on relief efforts. But, now that the data is rolling in, we have a little more clarity.
Freight flow – FreightWaves reports, “The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), a measure of national freight demand that tracks shippers’ requests for trucking capacity, had one of its strongest weeks as volumes have increased by 2.91%.” Dry van OTVI is 8.3% higher now than it was one year ago.
Volume – 81 of the 135 freight markets that SONAR tracks saw a bump in volume this week. If you’re in dry van, you may not be seeing a lot of that freight as volume growth was only 2.46% higher than this time last year. Reefer, on the other hand, is up 5.54% over the past week.
Rejections – Looking at the measure of contracted loads that are rejected (usually untenderly), we’re above 5%, which is considered the right direction toward normalization and recovery. Markets impacted by the storm or port strike saw the biggest bumps – especially those near Savannah, Georgia; Jacksonville, Florida; Atlanta; and Elizabeth, New Jersey.
Rates – Unfortunately, the increase in volume and rejects has not shown up in dry van rates. Those fell by 1 cent a mile when you include fuel and were down 2 cents a mile without fuel.
Cass – FreightWaves reports, “The Cass Freight Index showed shipments fell 5.2% year over year during September and 2.6% from August when seasonally adjusted.”
Despite that being the largest drop since June, Cass notes that it is seeing “signs of price stabilization.”
The report points out that truckload capacity will take a hit next month when Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse regulations impact “tens of thousands of CDL holders.”
James Bauman makes a great point in replying to that article: “If ‘stability,’ means what rates have stabilized at what most consider undesirable rates, we may have hit; or are near the bottom.”
Jim Allen / FreightWaves
JBHT – Intermodal leader J.B. Hunt’s transcontinental loads were up 7%, and it is now saying it’s seeing stability and upward trends that have the company preparing for “an eventual turn in the freight market.”
Headwinds? – The market needs catalysts and disruption to flip, and there are pitfalls on the horizon. As the Cass report pointed out, Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse regulations could park 160,000 CDL holders who are currently in prohibited status.
In addition, the International Longshoremen’s Association port strike is not fully resolved. On Jan. 15, automation and the union’s master contract are back on the table.
“The solution was driven more by political intervention than it was by a traditional collective-bargaining process, and it is a temporary solution,” MSC executive Bud Darr told a New York forum last week.
Speaking of the election, if Trump wins, we may see more freight pulled forward as shippers try to get ahead of new tariffs his administration has promised.
Sound off – What are you seeing in the market, and are you anticipating any of these headwinds to change things? Email me.
Panda Express
Bamboo bears – Think you ship a tough commodity? For the past 20 years, FedEx has moved 21 pandas back and forth between China and the U.S. Last week, the Memphis, Tennessee-based logistics beast (and my former employer) transported six giant pandas between the United States and China on two separate flights. In fact, it has even donated the transportation costs for the flights.
Rate the strap work c/o FedEx
According to FedEx, “The pandas traveled aboard a FedEx Boeing 777-F, known as the “FedEx Panda Express.”
FedEx
How does a panda prepare for a flight? FedEx says, “Before their trips, the animals spent time getting familiar with their enclosures to ensure they were safe and comfortable during their journeys.” Read more about their journey here.
What’s the strangest thing you’ve shipped? – I asked my audience on X and LinkedIn what some of their most unusual loads were. Here are a few:
Flexport CEO and Founder Ryan Peteresen – “Someone on my team once imported a kangaroo.”
Drew Distribution – “We once had to haul a large movie prop, a giant spaceship, to a film set. It was definitely out of this world.”
Rote – “Glass neon sign or giant fondant covered cake.”
How about you? Move anything interesting and think it may make a good segment on the show? Email me.
Friday on WHAT THE TRUCK?!?
How NASA is shipping humans back to the moon; Duty Drawback 101 – Friday live on WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, I’m joined by NASA’s Logan Kennedy to talk about the logistics of shipping humans back to the moon and the moon landers they’ll be doing their deep space trucking in.
My former boss and mentor at FedEx, Tamara Collyer, takes us to school with some Duty Drawback 101. We’ll find out how shippers are getting 99% of their tariffs back.
Part 2 of our new documentary “Rebuilding the Gateway to America.”
Plus, the latest headlines and weirdness going down in this wild industry.
Catch new shows live at noon EDT Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays on FreightWaves LinkedIn, Facebook, X or YouTube, or on demand by looking up WHAT THE TRUCK?!? on your favorite podcast player and at 5 p.m. Eastern on SiriusXM’s Road Dog Trucking Channel 146.
Halloweenmaxing
Halloween logo – Just in time for spooky season, we dropped our latest shirt in the shop. Head on over to WTTGear.com to get our newest merch! Use code WTTFans for 10% off.
STP x F3
Get your tickets to the logistics event of the year, F3, right here. (That’s my discount link.)
How Spirit Halloween is doing same-day delivery; Hazmat 101; from NFL to broker
Rail looting in Chicago; logistics of hurricane relief and FEMA loads
The rest of the noise
Trucking and marijuana testing find their way to the Supreme Court
Feds propose permanent ban on cargo trucks at Texas border bridge
Weekly US rail traffic back ahead of 2023 levels
Air cargo sector rides elongated peak season to strong finish
Thanks for reading, and feel free to forward this to a friend.
Subscribe to the show
Or simply look up WHAT THE TRUCK?!? on your favorite podcast player. Or, if you have SiriusXM, tune in to the show Monday, Wednesday and Friday at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Road Dog Trucking Channel 146.
Exit through the gift shop: WTTGear.com
Don’t be a stranger,
Dooner
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