Emirates’ 777 order underscores Airbus’ outlook for large freighters

July 16, 2024

The cargo branch of Dubai-based Emirates, the world’s fourth-largest airline by freight traffic, committed Tuesday to purchase an additional five 777 freighters from Boeing for $1 billion, adding needed supply of widebody freighters as demand for air shipping grows.

The announcement comes a day after Airbus upgraded by 3.3% its demand forecast for widebody freighters through 2043 but trimmed its overall outlook for freighter aircraft.

The Emirates order builds on one in 2022 for five 777 cargo jets, deliveries of which are expected to begin in the second half of the year.. The new tranche of planes will be delivered in 2025 and 2026.

Emirates SkyCargo said it will return some older leased freighters as new freighters arrive but that the overall capacity of the freighter fleet will increase by 30% once all the aircraft enter service.

The cargo airline operates 11 Boeing 777 freighters and temporarily wet leases one Boeing 747-400 from a third-party carrier. In addition to the 10 Boeing 777s on order, Emirates SkyCargo is converting 10 777-300 Extended Range jets into freighters under a deal with Israel Aircraft Industries, taking the freighter fleet to 17 aircraft by the end of 2025.

“Demand for our world-class product and services is growing exponentially, [amplified by Dubai’s strategy] to double foreign trade and reinforce the city’s position as a global trading hub. This investment in additional Boeing 777 capacity enables us to cater to customer demand and marks a step forward on our long-term strategic growth plan,” said Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Emirates Group chairman and CEO, in a news release.

He indicated that Emirates is also evaluating both the Airbus A350 and Boeing 777-8 next-generation freighters for future fleet growth and renewal.

“The next phase of our strategy will include a full assessment for our future freighter fleet reviewing all aircraft options to ensure we are best equipped to respond to the evolving demands of the market,” he said.

Earlier this month, Turkish Airlines placed an order for four Boeing 777 cargo jets.

The 777 freighter has a maximum payload of 112 tons and a range of 4,970 nautical miles.

Airbus freighter outlook

Meanwhile, Airbus said airlines will need 2,470 freighters over the next 20 years, of which 940 will be new builds and 1,530 will be used passenger jets converted to all-cargo configuration. Airbus said the industry will take delivery of 970 narrowbody, 880 midsize and 620 large freighters.

The long-range forecast is lower than a year ago by 40 units, with 60 fewer converted freighters produced than previously expected. Most of the reductions are in the narrowbody category. Airbus last year projected 1,020 new and converted standard-size freighters would be produced over the next two decades. A glut of small cargo jets has significantly reduced orders this year for passenger-to-freighter conversions, according to industry officials.

The Airbus analysis said global air cargo traffic will grow at a 3.1% compound annual rate between 2027 and 2043 on the back of continued expansion in global trade and economic output. Express shipments will grow 4.4% annually, outpacing growth of general cargo at 2.7% between 2027 and 2043. The figures reflect the transportation market’s correction from unprecedented highs during the pandemic. The manufacturer’s previous forecast showed the express cargo sector growing at a 4.9% annual rate for the period 2019 to 2042.

Express cargo will represent 25% of the market in 20 years, up from 20% in 2023 and 17% in 2019, Airbus said.

Logistics providers and analysts say widebody freighter capacity is very tight on major trade routes, especially out of Asia, because demand is up 12% this year and e-commerce companies in China are soaking up available space.

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